When is a win not a win? A loss not a loss? Those are not Zen riddles; they’re political questions whose answers can be found in the snows of New Hampshire.

The Granite State has a reputation as a place where winners go on to become presidents -- Ronald Reagan in 1980, for example, after trouncing George H.W. Bush (who had beaten Reagan in Iowa) -- but that’s not always so. Take 2000, when John McCain beat the ultimate winner that year, George W. Bush. Either way, it was clear who had actually won the primary. But that was not the case in two other contests that have become legendary in New Hampshire lore.

Forty years ago, President Lyndon Johnson was on the ballot in New Hampshire. Four years earlier he had been elected in a landslide in the wake of the Kennedy assassination, but his political fortunes had fallen as opposition to the war in Vietnam grew. Even so, it was widely assumed that Johnson would be the nominee that year, and that he would be tough to beat in the fall. Then came the Tet Offensive. In late January and early February 1968, enemy forces in Vietnam launched a wave of coordinated attacks against U.S. and allied forces. Militarily, the assault was a failure. But on the battlefield of public opinion, it was a different story. The enemy showed it was ferocious, determined, and capable of surprise. Americans were shocked by Tet, and came to believe that the war was not going as well as they had been told. Support for the war -- and for President Johnson -- began to evaporate, and it happened just weeks before the New Hampshire primary.

So Lyndon Johnson lost the 1968 New Hampshire primary, right? Wrong. In fact, he won, with 49.6% of the vote. But sometimes a win is not a win. Johnson was expected to do far better. Antiwar candidate Eugene McCarthy got 41.9%, far more than expected, and so the perception was that McCarthy had "won," and Johnson had "lost." McCarthy had drawn blood; the president was shown to be politically vulnerable, and the consequences were enormous. (Never mind that McCarthy was still such an unknown that many New Hampshire voters apparently thought they were voting for Joe McCarthy.) Within days, Robert F. Kennedy got into the race, and two weeks later, LBJ stunned absolutely everyone by announcing he was no longer a candidate. So much for winning in New Hampshire.

Twenty-four years and six New Hampshire primaries later, Bill Clinton was running in a crowded field that included Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin, and Jerry Brown. Harkin was coming off a win in his home state of Iowa. And Tsongas of Massachusetts was favored in New Hampshire, his neighboring state. But Clinton had an even bigger problem. Just weeks earlier, Gennifer Flowers emerged to reveal that she’d had an affair with Clinton when he was governor of Arkansas. He denied it, and fought back hard, building momentum in the days before the New Hampshire primary. It wasn’t enough to win; Tsongas did that, with 33.2% of the vote. Clinton came in second with 24.7%. But sometimes a loss is not a loss; Clinton had done better than expected. His strong showing showed that he was still a contender, an impression Clinton himself was only too happy to reinforce. With Hillary at his side, he declared, "New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton the Comeback Kid." It was a masterful bit of spin, and it stuck. (In that same speech, Clinton also said, "When you look at the results of this evening...it will not have been a very good night for the status quo crowd in Washington. And it'll be a great night for those of us who believe in change.") Clinton survived the 1992 New Hampshire primary to fight another day.

Who will win tomorrow in New Hampshire? Bet on the candidates who get the most votes. But watch those expectations.